While Ferrari approaches the weekend with strong ambitions, Mercedes also appears as a serious candidate for victory on a circuit where tire management and execution will be decisive.
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The Hungarian Grand Prix promises to be one of the most open races of the season, with a Mercedes-Ferrari showdown headlining the event.
The Scuderia is counting on the qualities of the SF-26 on twisty tracks: at Maranello, optimism is therefore in order.
Duel in the sun
The characteristics of the Hungaroring indeed match the strengths of the SF-26, particularly in the many medium-speed corners where its aerodynamic efficiency has regularly shone this season.
Ferrari thus hopes to compensate for a possible slight power deficit against Mercedes thanks to better cornering behavior and a car capable of generating more downforce.
Mercedes, however, has a major asset: the German team has shown particularly strong performance in managing tire degradation, an essential factor on the Hungarian track.
The successes achieved this season in Montreal, Monaco, and Spielberg have demonstrated the W17’s ability to preserve the rear tires over long stints, which could make the difference on Sunday.
Less decisive energy management
Unlike Spa-Francorchamps, the Hungaroring puts much less strain on the power units. The numerous braking zones allow for efficient electrical energy recovery, significantly reducing the deployment problems that have animated discussions in recent weeks.
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The balance of performance should therefore depend more on the intrinsic qualities of the cars than on battery management or energy recovery algorithms. The high temperatures expected in Budapest, combined with the softest tires in the Pirelli range (C3, C4, and C5), should favor a strategic race.
Several pit stops remain conceivable depending on the evolution of degradation, while overtakes being traditionally difficult on this circuit, maintaining track position could prove decisive.
McLaren and Red Bull also to watch
While Ferrari and Mercedes seem to start with a slight advantage on paper, McLaren and Red Bull remain fully in the fight. The Woking team will introduce a significant package of evolutions including a new floor and several aerodynamic modifications, designed to improve the performance of the MCL40.
Red Bull, for its part, will bring back its pivoting rear wing, modified after the incidents encountered by Max Verstappen in Barcelona and Silverstone, with the objective of improving performance consistency on a circuit very different from Spa.
The Hungarian Grand Prix will also mark a turning point for Aston Martin, which will introduce its first real development package of the season under the direction of Adrian Newey. Even if these novelties should not allow Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll to immediately join the fight for victory, they will offer a first glimpse of the new aerodynamic philosophy developed by the British team.
A very open fight
With four teams capable of playing leading roles and a circuit where the gaps are often extremely small, victory could come down to details.
Car setup, tire management, strategic choices, and on-track execution should be the key factors in a Hungarian Grand Prix that promises to be particularly contested.
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