Still without a win in 2026, Red Bull could take advantage of certain circuits in the second half of the season to reverse the trend.
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The first half of the 2026 F1 season confirmed a much less fixed hierarchy than in recent years. Mercedes retains the advantage, but Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull have gradually closed the gap through developments.
For Red Bull, the assessment remains mixed. After eleven Grands Prix, the Milton Keynes team is the only one among the top four teams not to have won a single race. Securing at least one victory before the end of the year therefore appears to be a minimal objective.
The recent progress made on the RB22 could help with that. The latest upgrades have improved its balance and increased rear downforce, as shown by Max Verstappen’s second place in Hungary. But the very different characteristics of the remaining circuits on the calendar should strongly influence its level of competitiveness.
Zandvoort and Singapore among the best opportunities
The Dutch Grand Prix could be one of Red Bull’s best chances for victory. The RB22 proved competitive on the technical Hungaroring track, where the power of the power unit plays a less decisive role.
Zandvoort could therefore allow Verstappen and Isack Hadjar to exploit the progress made on the chassis. Singapore also appears favorable. The low tire degradation and the sequence of relatively slow corners could suit the current characteristics of the car.
Mexico is another interesting opportunity. The altitude reduces performance gaps between power units, which could favor Red Bull. Tire management will nevertheless remain crucial, as the lack of downforce generated in the thin air favors sliding and thus tire wear.
Sepang, which will exceptionally host the Bahrain Grand Prix, could also offer possibilities. Its long straights should suit the Red Bull Ford power unit, but the more technical sections will allow measuring the progress made on the RB22’s balance.
Monza and Baku, two difficult meetings to predict
On paper, Monza and Baku should highlight the power unit’s performance more thanks to their long straights. But top speed does not depend solely on available power.
The aerodynamic efficiency of the RB22 will be decisive, as will its ability to preserve its tires. Excessive tire degradation has regularly been a weakness for Red Bull since the start of the year.
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Austin presents a relatively balanced profile, even if Red Bull’s chances could depend more on engine performance than on the intrinsic qualities of its chassis.
Madrid, on the other hand, represents a real unknown. The new Madrid circuit will make its debut on the calendar this season, and its level of grip should evolve significantly over the weekend. Under these conditions, simulations carried out before the event can only offer an imperfect view of the hierarchy.
Brazil and Qatar could expose the RB22’s weaknesses
Other meetings seem much less favorable. Interlagos requires a particularly balanced car, especially in its second sector. Given the difficulties Red Bull has faced since the start of the year, the Brazilian circuit does not seem to be the one that best suits the RB22’s qualities.
The assessment is similar for Lusail. The Qatari track puts a lot of strain on tires and demands excellent stability in long fast corners. Two areas likely to highlight the weaknesses still present on the Red Bull.
However, everything will depend on the developments made during the second half of the season. The hierarchy remains subject to change, especially with the additional development opportunities granted to certain engine manufacturers.
Abu Dhabi to finish on a high note?
The last Grand Prix of the season could ultimately be a great opportunity for Red Bull. About half of the Yas Marina circuit consists of fast sections, while tire degradation there is relatively contained.
The overall balance of the car also plays a less critical role there than on some other tracks. If Red Bull continues the progress glimpsed before the summer break, Abu Dhabi could thus allow the RB22 to finish its first season with a convincing performance.
Before that, Zandvoort, Singapore, and Mexico appear as three meetings to watch for Verstappen and Hadjar. For a team still without a win after eleven races, these circuits could represent its best chances to unlock its tally in 2026.
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