Formula 1 is discovering the Madring this weekend and no one really knows which car will be best suited. Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull all have arguments.
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Formula 1 is about to experience a particularly difficult-to-predict weekend in Madrid. For the first time, the teams will face the Madring, the new venue of the Spanish Grand Prix, with a major unknown: which car will best adapt to the very particular characteristics of this track?
The first analyses do not reveal a clear favorite. The circuit combines long fast sections with much more technical sectors, forcing teams to find a delicate compromise in the setup. A configuration that could reshuffle the cards between Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull.
A mix between Jeddah and Miami
The Madring borrows certain characteristics from several circuits already on the calendar. Its fastest part notably recalls Jeddah, with high speeds and relatively close walls, a comparison also made by Max Verstappen after discovering the track on a simulator.
The more technical sections, on the other hand, show more similarities with Miami. This alternation considerably complicates the engineers’ work, since a car optimized for the long fast sections risks losing some of its advantage in the slower corners, and vice versa.
Finding the right aerodynamic compromise will therefore be essential. Teams will have to maintain enough top speed without sacrificing the downforce needed to have a precise and stable car in the most winding sectors.
The asphalt, the big unknown of the weekend
But the circuit’s characteristics are not the only question. The surface is entirely new and its evolution could profoundly change performance over the sessions. The more the cars run, the more the track will rubber in, with direct consequences on grip and tire wear.
Certain sections should also impose significant constraints on the tires. The most spectacular corner is La Monumental, a long banked curve at 24 degrees that should generate particularly high loads.
Combined with the rapid direction changes present elsewhere on the track, this configuration could favor tire sliding and accelerate their degradation. Teams will therefore not only have to seek pure performance but also find setups that preserve the tires over long stints.
Mercedes favorite, but with a weakness
On paper, Mercedes should once again be among the main contenders for victory. After their one-two at Monza with Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, the W17 should notably be particularly strong in the fast sections of the Madring.
The situation could however be different in the technical sectors. The behavior of the rear axle could become a weakness there, as Mercedes currently does not seem to prioritize maximum stability at this level. On a circuit where driver confidence and precision will be essential, this characteristic could cost time.
Madrid therefore does not necessarily represent the ideal ground for the car currently dominating the championship. Mercedes should be very fast in some sections but might have to accept several compromises elsewhere.
Ferrari could find a more favorable terrain
Ferrari could precisely benefit from this configuration. The characteristics of the SF-26 seem to match well the compromise required by the Madring, which could allow the Scuderia to bounce back after a particularly disappointing Italian Grand Prix.
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Engine performance will also be closely watched. At Monza, Ferrari showed interesting speed on the long straights, even if this advantage could not be maintained in all phases of the race. The fast sector of Madrid will therefore be a new test to evaluate the power and efficiency of the power unit.
But unlike Monza, the Madring does not rely solely on top speed. Ferrari could thus better exploit the general qualities of its car and find a better balance between the different sectors.
McLaren has an interesting weapon
McLaren is also among the teams to watch. The MCL40 has a relatively short wheelbase and is not known for having the lowest aerodynamic drag on the grid, which could be a handicap in the fastest sections.
Its excellent handling could however compensate for this weakness. The McLaren is particularly precise at corner entry, a quality likely to make a real difference in the technical part of the Madrid circuit.
If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri manage to limit losses on the straights while exploiting this agility in the winding sectors, McLaren could return to the fight for victory after a more complicated weekend at Monza.
An interesting configuration for Red Bull
Red Bull could finally benefit from a track less penalizing for some weaknesses of the RB22. Madrid has relatively few long fast corners, an area where Max Verstappen’s car has sometimes struggled this season. La Monumental is nevertheless an important exception.
On the rest of the lap, Red Bull’s qualities should be able to express themselves more. The power unit could also suit the fast sections and, above all, energy management should be less problematic than at Monza, where Verstappen regretted not being able to compete with the Mercedes in this area.
After still securing third place in Italy, the Dutchman could therefore have a car better suited to Madrid and mix again in the fight at the front.
An impossible hierarchy to predict?
A few hours before the first laps, none of the four big teams seems to have a sufficiently significant advantage to be considered the undisputed favorite. Mercedes should excel in the fast sections, Ferrari seems well equipped for the overall compromise, McLaren could shine in the technical sectors, and Red Bull should be less exposed to some of its weaknesses.
The evolution of the new asphalt, tire management, and especially the engineers’ ability to quickly find the right setups could ultimately weigh more than the hierarchy observed in recent races.
This first at the Madring could thus reserve a real surprise. On a circuit that no one yet masters and whose characteristics seem to suit different cars, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull all have credible reasons to hope to fight for victory.