Still fully in the title race after Silverstone, Lewis Hamilton now trails Kimi Antonelli by 101 points. A spectacular fall.
Read more Lewis Hamilton sees an impressive streak end after his retirement in Madrid
Only six Grands Prix ago, Lewis Hamilton could still reasonably dream of an eighth world title. After his victory in Barcelona and several podiums, the Ferrari driver appeared as one of the main rivals to Kimi Antonelli. But since Silverstone, the situation has completely reversed.
On the evening of the British Grand Prix, Hamilton was only 32 points behind the Mercedes driver. Six races later, the gap now stands at 101 points. A brutal development explained as much by Antonelli’s impressive consistency as by the difficulties faced by Hamilton and Ferrari.
From 32 to 101 points behind in six races
Hamilton had finished third at Silverstone behind Charles Leclerc and George Russell, thus staying perfectly in touch with Antonelli in the championship. But from the following races, the gap began to increase almost systematically.
The Briton was 45 points behind after Belgium, then 50 after Hungary. The gap rose to 59 points in the Netherlands before reaching 76 points after Monza. His retirement in Madrid finally pushed this deficit to 101 points.
This progression alone tells the story of the season’s turning point. While Hamilton was no longer able to stop the momentum, Antonelli continued to accumulate strong results and notably won in Belgium, Italy, and Spain.
Reliability certainly played a role in this fall, but it is not enough to explain such a gap. During this period, the Mercedes driver simply showed himself to be faster and above all more consistent.
Madrid could have delivered the final blow
The Spanish Grand Prix probably constituted the most painful setback for Hamilton. Fourth on the grid, the seven-time world champion had a great start before a failure in his braking system abruptly ended his race.
Approaching turn 5, Hamilton suddenly felt his pedal sink further. Unable to slow down normally, he ran wide and slightly touched the wall. The problem momentarily disappeared before returning a few corners later, forcing Ferrari to stop his car for safety reasons.
The Scuderia has since launched a thorough investigation to determine the exact cause of this failure. Fred Vasseur acknowledged that Ferrari still did not have a precise explanation immediately after the race.
But this retirement comes at the worst possible time for Hamilton. Having scored points in the first 13 rounds of the season, his first zero-point finish comes precisely when every result becomes essential to keep pressure on Antonelli.
Leclerc has become the reference at Ferrari
Another trend is particularly worrying for Hamilton: for several races, Charles Leclerc seems to have taken the upper hand within Ferrari itself. The Monegasque won at Silverstone in a Scuderia one-two on the podium, before finishing ahead of his teammate in Belgium, Hungary, and again in Spain.
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This progression notably coincides with a setup change made by Leclerc before the British Grand Prix. The Monegasque adopted an approach closer to that used by Hamilton under braking to better control the high-speed instability he had previously complained about.
The developments introduced by Ferrari around this period also improved the aerodynamic balance and straight-line efficiency of the SF-26. However, Leclerc seems to have been able to exploit these improvements more consistently, especially over long stints.
Hamilton, on the other hand, continues to struggle with the behavior of his car. After Zandvoort, he notably explained that he had lost confidence due to an unpredictable balance, with the car tending to escape him both in qualifying and in the race.
Ferrari remains behind Mercedes and McLaren
Even the significant upgrade introduced in Barcelona in June did not completely solve the problems. Ferrari had then deeply modified its car with notably a new front wing, a new nose, revised sidepods, as well as developments to the floor and diffuser.
Hamilton had nevertheless estimated that the Scuderia still had a significant gap to Mercedes and McLaren. Ferrari also took advantage of the additional development opportunities granted by the FIA to evolve its power unit during the European season.
The situation could become even more delicate as Mercedes is reportedly considering exploiting these opportunities during the upcoming non-European rounds. New progress from the German engine would only increase the pressure on Ferrari.
Fred Vasseur nevertheless refuses to abandon the development of the SF-26. According to the Frenchman, about 80% of the mechanical and aerodynamic work currently being done can be transferred to the 2027 car thanks to the stability of the regulations.
An eighth title now almost out of reach
For Hamilton, this long-term justification does not change the urgency of the current situation. With 101 points behind Antonelli, his chances of winning an eighth world title have been considerably reduced.
The Briton himself acknowledged that he was facing the biggest deficit he has experienced this season. However, he refuses to constantly focus on calculations and insists on wanting above all to maximize his own performance at each weekend.
This is probably the only approach still possible. Hamilton must now string together major results while hoping for several mistakes from Antonelli to get back into the race. But at the pace shown by the young Italian in recent weeks, the scenario seems increasingly unlikely.
In just six races, Hamilton has thus gone from a genuine championship contender to a huge outsider. And his retirement in Madrid may well have definitively dashed his last hopes of winning that coveted eighth crown.
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