Mercedes still dominates both championships, but its lead is shrinking. Stefan Johansson expects a very competitive second half of the season.
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Although Mercedes has a comfortable lead in both championships at the summer break, nothing is decided yet. This is the opinion of Stefan Johansson, who believes that the rise of Ferrari and McLaren could completely reignite the battle during the second half of the season.
The German team had nevertheless started the new regulatory era in an impressive way. Mercedes won the first six Grands Prix of the season, immediately taking a lead over its main rivals.
But the situation has gradually evolved. In the last five races, Ferrari has won twice while McLaren found the path to victory again in Hungary. Mercedes therefore no longer appears as untouchable as at the start of the championship.
Mercedes’ advantage has shrunk
The introduction of the new technical regulations in 2026 has profoundly changed the cars, both aerodynamically and in terms of power units.
Mercedes apparently managed this transition better than its rivals and had a significant advantage during the first weeks of competition. But according to Johansson, the other teams are now starting to better understand their new cars.
“It’s already exciting. There is obviously now more than one team in the battle.”
The former Formula 1 driver even expects the gaps to continue to decrease as teams gain experience with this generation of cars.
“I think it will balance out even more over the years.”
Ferrari and McLaren already seem to illustrate this trend. The Scuderia has gradually reduced its deficit while the significant upgrade introduced by McLaren in Hungary allowed Lando Norris to claim the team’s first victory this season.
Teams are starting to understand the new cars
For Johansson, part of Mercedes’ initial advantage came mainly from its ability to exploit the peculiarities of the new regulations more quickly.
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“Mercedes clearly had a fairly significant advantage at the start of the year, but more and more teams now understand how to manage the car and everything around it, because that represents a very important part of the performance.”
This better understanding could make the second half of the season much tighter than the first.
“The gaps will certainly narrow. I think the championship is far from over.”
A warning that comes as Mercedes still holds a particularly favorable position before the restart.
Antonelli still has a 50-point lead
Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers’ championship thanks notably to his six wins in the first 11 rounds. The Italian has a 50-point lead over Lewis Hamilton, his closest pursuer.
The situation is also favorable to Mercedes in the constructors’ championship. The Brackley team has a 72-point lead over Ferrari, which currently represents its main threat.
These margins remain significant, but the recent momentum could prompt Mercedes to be cautious. The team has in fact planned to focus a significant part of its development program on the second half of the season.
Ferrari intends to continue its steady pace of upgrades, while McLaren has just demonstrated with its victory in Hungary that the MCL40 can now compete at the front.
Mercedes will therefore resume competition in a position of strength, but not necessarily with the dominance shown at the start of the season. With half the championship still to be contested, Johansson warns: the fight for both crowns could be far from decided.
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