Oscar Piastri could one day face one of the cruelest choices in modern Formula 1: stay in a team capable of winning titles while living in the shadow of a superstar teammate, or leave to become the absolute leader elsewhere… at the risk of never finding a car capable of winning again.
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And according to two experienced figures in the paddock, F1 history shows that many drivers have been wrong in making this bet.
As speculation about Max Verstappen’s long-term future continues, Piastri’s name is increasingly mentioned as a potential successor at Red Bull Racing.
The classic trap of a career plan
On paper, the scenario seems appealing: becoming the center of the next Red Bull project alongside young prospect Isack Hadjar. But former managers and engineers Rob Smedley and Otmar Szafnauer have issued a very clear warning: this kind of decision has destroyed more careers than it has saved.
In the High Performance Racing podcast, Smedley dismantled the romantic idea that a driver could leave a dominant team to easily build their own legend elsewhere. Drawing on his experience at Ferrari and Williams, he recalls seeing many drivers attempt this bet… without success.
“If you are in this team and struggling against your teammate, what are your options? Leave the team to join a weaker outfit where you might be the best driver… but with no chance of winning the championship?” asks Smedley. “I’ve seen this many times, and I’ve never seen it end well. I’ve never seen a driver happier after making that choice.”
This analysis takes on a particular dimension in Piastri’s case. The Australian is now firmly established at McLaren, one of the strongest projects on the grid, and remains at the heart of the team’s plan at least until 2027.
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Being number one is not enough
Szafnauer takes the analysis even further: the problem is not just becoming the number one driver in a team. That team also has to become capable of beating the best. And in modern F1, domination cycles often last a very long time.
“There are two things that have to happen,” explains the American manager. “You want to become number one in another team — fine. But that team also has to become the best on the grid. And that combination is extremely rare.”
“Moving from the third-best team to the first is very difficult. We’ve had six or seven years of Mercedes domination, then Red Bull, then Ferrari in Michael Schumacher’s era for almost ten years,” he recalls. “So if you leave Ferrari because you want to be number one elsewhere, you potentially spend ten years in a team that will never win.”
This is precisely the equation that could await Piastri if Verstappen leaves Red Bull before 2028. The idea of taking one of F1’s most prestigious seats, becoming the leader of a new era, and escaping the internal rivalry with Lando Norris would be extremely tempting.
But the message from Smedley and Szafnauer is clear: F1 history shows that leaving a team already capable of winning to seek a higher personal status often leads to a dead end. Because in F1, being the star of the wrong team is still a form of defeat.
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