Already forced to penalize Kimi Antonelli at Monza, Mercedes might be tempted to do the same with George Russell. David Coulthard considers the ideal moment.
Read more Extreme heat will put the F1 engines to a tough test at Monza
Could Mercedes sacrifice the Italian Grand Prix of its two drivers to better prepare for the rest of the season? While Toto Wolff has already confirmed that Kimi Antonelli will receive a grid penalty at Monza after installing a new power unit, George Russell could soon find himself in a similar situation.
The Briton is indeed reaching the limit of his regulatory allocation for several components of his engine. A new part would automatically result in a grid penalty, which raises an important strategic question for Mercedes: should they take advantage of Monza to make these changes immediately or try to postpone the deadline?
Russell reaches the limit of his engine allocation
Russell is currently using his last authorized example of several major components: exhaust, internal combustion engine, turbocharger, battery, and control electronics.
In theory, he could finish the season without penalty provided all these parts last until the last Grand Prix. But with a significant part of the championship still to be contested, Mercedes knows that a new change could become inevitable.
The choice of circuit on which to take this sanction then becomes crucial. And Monza traditionally is one of the tracks favored by teams to introduce new engine elements.
Why Monza represents an ideal opportunity
The Temple of Speed offers long straights and several overtaking opportunities, which facilitates a comeback from the back of the pack. A car with good top speed can therefore limit the consequences of a penalty much more easily than on some street circuits.
This is precisely why Mercedes chose Monza to install a new complete power unit on Antonelli’s car. The championship leader will drop back on the grid but should have a W17 sufficiently competitive to recover a significant part of the lost positions.
David Coulthard believes Mercedes should seriously consider the same strategy with Russell.
“You have to take the opportunity when it presents itself. I don’t really know where that expression comes from, but at some point, you have to take that penalty,” explains the former driver on the Up to Speed podcast.
“As we said, Monza offers more opportunities.”
Madrid and Baku complicate the equation
Waiting could indeed expose Mercedes to a much less favorable scenario. The next two rounds will take place in Madrid and then Baku, two street circuits where a grid penalty could cost much more.
Read more Fernando Alonso responds bluntly to criticism about his age: «Everyone was half dead in front of me»
If a component were to reach its limit after Monza, Russell could be forced to start far back on the grid on a track where climbing through the field would potentially be more complicated.
Mercedes must therefore weigh two risks: deliberately penalizing Russell in Italy while his teammate will already drop back on the grid, or trying to extend the life of his components hoping to choose a more favorable round later in the season.
Mercedes has an asset for recovery
Coulthard also points out that the efficiency of the Mercedes power unit could facilitate a comeback at Monza. The official team notably seemed to better master the deployment of its engine than its customer teams at the start of the season.
“They understand very well the deployment of their power unit. That’s what gave them such a significant advantage over other teams equipped with the Mercedes engine, like McLaren, Williams, and Alpine, at the start of the year,” the Scot estimates.
However, this lead has diminished over the months. McLaren has notably made significant progress in exploiting the Mercedes power unit and has just won the last two Grands Prix with Lando Norris.
“I think this is precisely one of the areas where McLaren has made the biggest progress: understanding how to exploit the power unit. We will very soon find out who will come out on top in this particular battle.”
A choice with heavy consequences for Russell
The decision is all the more delicate as Russell is still trying to catch up to Antonelli in the championship. With 59 points behind his teammate, he could theoretically take advantage of the Italian’s penalty at Monza to recover a significant part of his deficit.
Choosing to also change his engine would greatly reduce this opportunity. On the other hand, keeping his current components would carry the risk of a penalty later in the season, potentially on a circuit much less favorable to overtaking.
Mercedes must therefore choose between an immediate championship opportunity and a more cautious management of the end of the season. For Coulthard, Monza offers enough comeback possibilities for the team to seriously consider sending Russell out with a new power unit, even if it means sacrificing his grid position.
Read more Red Bull announces the replacement of Max Verstappen for FP1 in Monza