Mercedes’ silver dominance may seem unshakable on paper after the first three races of the season, but according to Villeneuve, cracks are starting to appear in Brackley…
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While Kimi Antonelli won in Japan, the 1997 world champion believes that the celebration in the Mercedes garage should have been tempered by a sense of concern.
Mercedes won the first three races of 2026, but the Suzuka Circuit served as a reality check, which the paddock’s incisive consultant was quick to point out.
The Illusion of Security
Despite the victory, seeing Oscar Piastri lead George Russell on merit during the first stint has changed the narrative: it’s no longer a question of if Mercedes can be beaten, but when.
During the first two rounds, Mercedes seemed to be operating in another dimension. But the fast and technical demands of Suzuka — a circuit that is unforgiving aerodynamically — revealed a closing gap.
Villeneuve believes that the comfortable cushion Mercedes enjoyed in March has now diminished.
“We saw McLaren be very performant in its ability to react last year,” Villeneuve told F1 TV, recalling the Woking team’s history of rapid development. “But me, I would be worried if I were Mercedes now, because the first two races were easy. They felt safe, they no longer feel safe after this race. The gap is not as large as they thought, especially on a very car-dependent circuit. “
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An Abnormal Weekend for Mercedes
For a team that has set the standards for a decade, a lucky victory thanks to a well-placed Safety Car for Antonelli is not enough to satisfy Villeneuve’s high standards: “It’s a circuit where, if your car is good, you’re in front. And for Mercedes, a weekend where you don’t finish first and second is not a good weekend. A normal weekend for Mercedes is first and second. Japan was a big miss.”
As the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile prepares a crucial meeting on April 9 to discuss potential emergency regulatory changes — triggered by Oliver Bearman’s violent 50G impact at Suzuka — the battle is now moving from the track to behind the scenes.
While safety is the main argument, the political game is very real.
A Political Shield for the Silver Arrows ?
Jos Verstappen, never short of criticism for his son’s rivals, believes that Toto Wolff will fight tooth and nail for the current 2026 regulations to preserve his team’s advantage: ” It’s also a political game, changes are not always easy to obtain. Toto Wolff and Mercedes will want to keep these rules as long as possible,” he told De Telegraaf.
According to Jos Verstappen, Mercedes’ current advantage is not limited to on-track performance, but also rests on a considerable lead in research and development.
“They have invested an enormous amount of time and money in this and clearly have a lead, also in terms of knowledge compared to their own customer teams, for example. It’s their right of course, they can now benefit from it,” he added.
It remains to be seen whether Mercedes can maintain this “right” to dominate, or if McLaren’s rise at Suzuka marks the beginning of a shift. If Villeneuve is right, the easy days in Brackley may well be over.
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