The Australian Grand Prix opens the 2026 F1 season, and fans are wondering if the weather will again play a key role as it did last year in Melbourne.
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Last year, the 2025 edition of the Australian Grand Prix made F1 history by becoming the first season opener held in the rain. Lando Norris managed to make the most of the situation and secure his first victory of a winning season, in extremely chaotic conditions.
This weekend, all eyes are on the Melbourne sky: could a similar scenario happen again?
Rather mild conditions expected
According to the latest local forecasts as of midnight on Thursday, March 5, the risk of rain remains limited for the entire weekend at Albert Park. On Friday, during the first practice sessions, sunshine should dominate, with pleasant temperatures between 20 and 25 °C. The same scenario applies to race Sunday, where drivers will compete over 58 laps in mostly sunny conditions.
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On Saturday, the situation could be a bit more unstable. The third practice session and qualifying could see cloudy skies and a few isolated showers, linked to the meeting of two rain systems. The first is moving up from the north from Brisbane and the Gold Coast, while the second is advancing from southern Tasmania after hitting the South Island of New Zealand. Sydney will be the most affected city, but Melbourne could receive one or two passing drops.
Wind and track strategy
The wind will also play an interesting role for the drivers. On Friday, it will blow from the northeast, then shift to the north on Saturday for qualifying. On race day, it will come from the southeast towards the northwest, offering a slight advantage for overtaking.
On the fast sector from turn 6 to the sequence of turns 9 and 10 before the heavy braking at turn 11, the headwind could help drivers take advantage of the slipstream effect and overtaking strategies.
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